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War with Iraq
Costs, Consequences, and Alternatives
Carl Kaysen
Steven E. Miller
Martin B. Malin
William D. Nordhaus
John D. Steinbruner
committee on
international security studies
War with Iraq
Costs, Consequences, and Alternatives
Carl Kaysen
Steven E. Miller
Martin B. Malin
William D. Nordhaus
John D. Steinbruner
©2002 by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences
All rights reserved
ISBN#: 0-87724-036-1
The views expressed in this volume are those held by each contributor and are not
necessarily those of the Officers and Fellows of the American Academy of Arts and
Sciences or its Committee on International Security Studies.
Please direct inquiries to:
American Academy of Arts and Sciences
136 Irving Street
Cambridge,
MA
02138-1996
Telephone: (617) 576-5000
Fax: (617) 576-5050
E-mail: aaas@amacad.org
Visit our Website at www.amacad.org
Layout: Jordi Weinstock
Contents
vii PREFACE
1 CHAPTER 1
U.S. National Security Policy: In Search of Balance
Carl Kaysen, John D. Steinbruner, and Martin B. Malin
7 CHAPTER 2
Gambling on War: Force, Order, and the Implications of
Attacking Iraq
Steven E. Miller
51 CHAPTER 3
The Economic Consequences of a War with Iraq
William D. Nordhaus
87 CONTRIBUTORS
Preface
This Occasional Paper has its origins in a discussion that took place at a meeting of the
Committee on International Security Studies (CISS) of the American Academy of Arts
and Sciences on October 11, 2002. Participants included: James Carroll (Boston Globe),
Richard Garwin (Council on Foreign Relations), Janice Gross-Stein (University of
To ronto), Harry Harding (George Washington University), Carl Kaysen
(Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Neal Lane (Rice University), Robert Legvold
(Columbia University), Jane Holl Lute (United Nations Foundation), Martin Malin
(American Academy of Arts and Sciences), Everett Mendelsohn (Harvard University),
Steven Miller (Harvard University), Janne Nolan (Georgetown University), Robert
Pastor (American University), Bruce Russett (Yale University), and John Steinbruner
(University of Maryland).
At the meeting it was agreed that the ongoing public discussion of U.S. policy
toward Iraq would be enriched by a timely, scholarly analysis of the underlying issues.
The papers in this collection are an attempt to provide insight into the potential costs
and consequences, over the long term, of going to war with Iraq. We thank the
Academy’s Executive Officer, Leslie Berlowitz, for encouraging us to share this analysis
more widely.
“U.S. National Security Policy: In Search of Balance,” by Carl Kaysen, John D.
Steinbruner, and Martin B. Malin, was informed by the CISS discussion but is the
product only of its authors; other members of the Committee may or may not agree
with it in whole or in part.
“Gambling on War: Force, Order, and the Implications of Attacking Iraq” was
originally written by Steven E. Miller for an International Pugwash Workshop (no.
276) on “Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction” held in Como, Italy, on
September 26–28, 2002. Professor Miller revised his paper for this publication.
“The Economic Consequences of a War with Iraq” was written by William D.
Nordhaus. A substantially shorter version was published in the December 5, 2002 issue
of the New York Review of Books.
As always, the argument and opinions presented in these papers are those of the
individual authors, not those of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences or its
Committee on International Security Studies.
Carl Kaysen and John Steinbruner
Co-Chairs, Committee on International Security Studies
November 2002
PREFACE
vii
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War with Iraq
Costs, Consequences, and Alternatives
Carl Kaysen
Steven E. Miller
Martin B. Malin
William D. Nordhaus
John D. Steinbruner
committee on
international security studies
War with Iraq
Costs, Consequences, and Alternatives
Carl Kaysen
Steven E. Miller
Martin B. Malin
William D. Nordhaus
John D. Steinbruner
©2002 by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences
All rights reserved
ISBN#: 0-87724-036-1
The views expressed in this volume are those held by each contributor and are not
necessarily those of the Officers and Fellows of the American Academy of Arts and
Sciences or its Committee on International Security Studies.
Please direct inquiries to:
American Academy of Arts and Sciences
136 Irving Street
Cambridge,
MA
02138-1996
Telephone: (617) 576-5000
Fax: (617) 576-5050
E-mail: aaas@amacad.org
Visit our Website at www.amacad.org
Layout: Jordi Weinstock
Contents
vii PREFACE
1 CHAPTER 1
U.S. National Security Policy: In Search of Balance
Carl Kaysen, John D. Steinbruner, and Martin B. Malin
7 CHAPTER 2
Gambling on War: Force, Order, and the Implications of
Attacking Iraq
Steven E. Miller
51 CHAPTER 3
The Economic Consequences of a War with Iraq
William D. Nordhaus
87 CONTRIBUTORS
Preface
This Occasional Paper has its origins in a discussion that took place at a meeting of the
Committee on International Security Studies (CISS) of the American Academy of Arts
and Sciences on October 11, 2002. Participants included: James Carroll (Boston Globe),
Richard Garwin (Council on Foreign Relations), Janice Gross-Stein (University of
To ronto), Harry Harding (George Washington University), Carl Kaysen
(Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Neal Lane (Rice University), Robert Legvold
(Columbia University), Jane Holl Lute (United Nations Foundation), Martin Malin
(American Academy of Arts and Sciences), Everett Mendelsohn (Harvard University),
Steven Miller (Harvard University), Janne Nolan (Georgetown University), Robert
Pastor (American University), Bruce Russett (Yale University), and John Steinbruner
(University of Maryland).
At the meeting it was agreed that the ongoing public discussion of U.S. policy
toward Iraq would be enriched by a timely, scholarly analysis of the underlying issues.
The papers in this collection are an attempt to provide insight into the potential costs
and consequences, over the long term, of going to war with Iraq. We thank the
Academy’s Executive Officer, Leslie Berlowitz, for encouraging us to share this analysis
more widely.
“U.S. National Security Policy: In Search of Balance,” by Carl Kaysen, John D.
Steinbruner, and Martin B. Malin, was informed by the CISS discussion but is the
product only of its authors; other members of the Committee may or may not agree
with it in whole or in part.
“Gambling on War: Force, Order, and the Implications of Attacking Iraq” was
originally written by Steven E. Miller for an International Pugwash Workshop (no.
276) on “Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction” held in Como, Italy, on
September 26–28, 2002. Professor Miller revised his paper for this publication.
“The Economic Consequences of a War with Iraq” was written by William D.
Nordhaus. A substantially shorter version was published in the December 5, 2002 issue
of the New York Review of Books.
As always, the argument and opinions presented in these papers are those of the
individual authors, not those of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences or its
Committee on International Security Studies.
Carl Kaysen and John Steinbruner
Co-Chairs, Committee on International Security Studies
November 2002
PREFACE
vii
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